ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Food security refers to the consistent physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for an active, healthy life. Natural disasters—such as floods, earthquakes, and droughts—can disrupt food systems by damaging crops, livestock, and infrastructure, leading to both immediate shortages and long-term impacts. This study examines the impact of natural disasters on food security in Pakistan from 1990 to 2022, using a quantitative approach with secondary data. Employing a multiple regression model and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method, the study investigates how disasters, high-yielding variety (HYV) seeds, irrigated land, climate change, and pesticide use affect daily per capita caloric intake as a measure of food security. Results show a significant negative impact of natural disasters and climate change on food security, with a disaster variable coefficient of -0.055 (p = 0.041). In contrast, HYV seeds and irrigated areas positively influence caloric intake, with coefficients of 0.085 and 2.42, respectively. The model explains approximately 95% of the variation in food security outcomes (R² ≈ 0.95). These findings underscore Pakistan's vulnerability to climate-related shocks and highlight the need for improved agricultural practices and water management to safeguard food security